Wake up call. Look at and trade housing derivatives. Seek them out.
Housing derivatives are financial contracts that use housing price indices for settlement. The first index available for trading was launched in May 2006 was the S&P/Case-Shiller (SPCS) Home Price Index. SPCS housing futures and options contracts are traded transparently on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Since the 2006 inception, the forward markets for housing were lower. Save for the first week of trading, the future housing market has always pointed lower. This housing price fall we are experiencing was "predicted" and traded upon for over two years now. It was and is open for all to see. A second index launched for trading was Radar Logic RPX in September 2007. Since the RPX launch, the RPX forward swap markets were always pointing down.
Housing derivatives markets saw the housing NAV depreciation in the US housing market early, clearly and transparently. All investors and government officials had and have access to these markets.
These same markets are earlier than almost any other economic metric in showing the tops and bottoms in US housing.
CME futures and options contracts are listed. RPX swaps and forwards are OTC.
