HOUSING DERIVATIVES

Housing Indexes: All-Time Highs and Where We are Now

These tables look at the high prices that US housimng made over the last two years and compares them to the spot indexes and what the derivatives markets project will be the full swing out two-three years.  Sources: Bloomberg, Radar Logic, TFS.

S&P/Case-Shiller Index - February 2008 v Highs
						Nov 2010 Future v   High Index
	High Month	Hi  Index	Feb 08	High v Feb 08	High v   Feb 08
Atl	Jul 07	136.47	125.83	(10.64)	-7.80%
Bos	Sep 05	182.48	160.31	(22.17)	-12.15%	-17.80%
Char	Aug 07	135.88	131.22	(4.66)	-3.43%
Chi	Sep 06	168.60	153.33	(15.27)	-9.06%	-19.45%
Clev	Jul 06	123.49	106.82	(16.67)	-13.50%
Dal	Jun 07	126.47	117.72	(8.75)	-6.92%
Den	Aug 06	140.27	127.50	(12.77)	-9.10%	-19.44%
Det	Dec 05	127.05	97.61	(29.44)	-23.17%
LA	Sep 06	273.94	214.83	(59.11)	-21.58%	-43.78%
LV	Aug 06	234.78	177.18	(57.60)	-24.53%	-46.33%
Mia	Dec 06	280.87	218.74	(62.13)	-22.12%	-39.19%
Min	Sep 06	171.12	145.93	(25.19)	-14.72%
NY	Jun 06	215.83	198.46	(17.37)	-8.05%	-22.07%
Pho	Jun 06	227.42	172.72	(54.70)	-24.05%
Port	Jul 07	186.51	176.24	(10.27)	-5.51%
SD	Nov 05	250.34	190.34	(60.00)	-23.97%	-38.64%
Sea	Jul 07	192.30	179.85	(12.45)	-6.47%
SF	May 06	218.37	174.54	(43.83)	-20.07%	-40.47%
Tamp	Jul 06	238.09	188.59	(49.50)	-20.79%
WDC	May 06	251.07	207.05	(44.02)	-17.53%	-26.71%
10-C	Jun 06	226.29	190.58	(35.71)	-15.78%	-29.12%
20-C	Jul 06	206.52	175.94	(30.58)	-14.81%
Radar Logic RPX - April 29, 2008 Publication Date v High Watermarks
						3 Year Swap v   High Index
	High Month	High Month	29-Apr-08	High v	High v
	Pub date	28 day Index	28 day Index	Index	Index
Atl	Aug 07	106.31	92.30	(14.01)	-13.18%
Bos	Oct 05	257.46	198.29	(59.17)	-22.98%
Char	Aug 07	101.62	97.15	(4.47)	-4.40%
Chi	Aug 07	205.19	160.13	(45.06)	-21.96%
Clev	Aug 05	99.59	85.94	(13.65)	-13.71%
Col	Sep 05	103.92	91.16	(12.76)	-12.28%
Den	Sep 07	152.56	128.00	(24.56)	-16.10%
Det	Oct 05	121.60	94.80	(26.80)	-22.04%
Jax	Jan 07	135.97	112.12	(23.85)	-17.54%
LA	Jun 07	401.65	319.68	(81.97)	-20.41%
LV	Jul 06	186.72	132.36	(54.36)	-29.11%
Manh	Dec 07	1184.95	1117.59	(67.36)	-5.68%
Mia	Jul 06	208.48	168.82	(39.66)	-19.02%
Milw	Aug 07	135.29	107.60	(27.69)	-20.47%
Minn	Aug 06	164.36	138.13	(26.23)	-15.96%
NY	Aug 07	310.00	290.01	(19.99)	-6.45%
Phi	Aug 07	164.59	148.65	(15.94)	-9.68%
Phx	Aug 06	167.81	131.87	(35.94)	-21.42%
Sacr	Nov 05	252.78	161.25	(91.53)	-36.21%
SD	Jul 06	357.34	253.79	(103.55)	-28.98%
Sea	Aug 07	236.16	217.56	(18.60)	-7.88%
SF	Aug 07	463.32	372.95	(90.37)	-19.50%
SJ	Jul 07	484.69	424.43	(60.26)	-12.43%
Stl	Jul 07	124.52	98.54	(25.98)	-20.86%
Tamp	Aug 06	147.18	115.26	(31.92)	-21.69%
WDC	Jul 06	267.18	211.83	(55.35)	-20.72%
25 C	Aug 07	278.32	239.26	(39.06)	-14.03%	-32.03%

S&P/Case-Shiller Index - February 2008

Today, S&P released the February 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller HPI data: S&P/Case-Shiller Index - February 2008
CME	Feb 07	Jan 08	Feb 08	Jan 08 v Feb 08	Jan 08 v Feb 08	Feb 07 v Feb 08
Bos	168.04	162.59	160.31	(2.28)	-1.40%	-4.6%	Bos
Chi	167.49	156.47	153.33	(3.14)	-2.01%	-8.5%	Chi
Den	134.86	128.98	127.50	(1.48)	-1.15%	-5.5%	Den
LV	229.64	186.05	177.18	(8.87)	-4.77%	-22.8%	LV
LA	266.63	224.41	214.83	(9.58)	-4.27%	-19.4%	LA
Mia	279.43	225.40	218.74	(6.66)	-2.95%	-21.7%	Mia
NY	212.52	200.49	198.46	(2.03)	-1.01%	-6.6%	NY
SD	235.54	197.45	190.34	(7.11)	-3.60%	-19.2%	SD
SF	210.78	183.81	174.54	(9.27)	-5.04%	-17.2%	SF
WDC	237.98	213.03	207.05	(5.98)	-2.81%	-13.0%	WDC
10-C	220.46	196.17	190.58	(5.59)	-2.85%	-13.6%	10-C
	Feb 07	Jan 08	Feb 08	Jan 08 v Feb 08	Jan 08 v Feb 08	Feb 07 v Feb 08
Atl	133.30	127.63	125.83	(1.80)	-1.41%	-5.6%	Atl
Char	129.31	131.70	131.22	(0.48)	-0.36%	1.5%	Char
Clev	117.62	108.49	106.82	(1.67)	-1.54%	-9.2%	Clev
Dal	122.73	118.57	117.72	(0.85)	-0.72%	-4.1%	Dal
Det	116.85	100.17	97.61	(2.56)	-2.56%	-16.5%	Det
Min	166.83	151.05	145.93	(5.12)	-3.39%	-12.5%	Min
Pho	218.07	180.06	172.72	(7.34)	-4.08%	-20.8%	Pho
Port	179.90	178.81	176.24	(2.57)	-1.44%	-2.0%	Port
Sea	184.85	181.62	179.85	(1.77)	-0.97%	-2.7%	Sea
Tamp	228.46	194.64	188.59	(6.05)	-3.11%	-17.5%	Tamp
20-C	201.57	180.75	175.94	(4.81)	-2.66%	-12.7%	20-C

Source: Bloomberg

2008 New Home Sales = 1991 Levels

Today, the US Census Bureau released its March 2008 New Home Sales figures.  Annual rate as of today is 526,000 (and this number will probably have a downward revision next month).  The last time the housing economy had this low a new home sales per annum figure was October 1991.  Bigger lows were recorded in January 1991 (401,500 units) and September 1981 (338,000 units).  As a price perspective, look at the S&P/Case-Shiller 10 City Composite indexes for these periods:

• March 2008 - Sales 526,000 - SPCS Index (1/08) 196.06 (could be about 188.0 for 3/08)
• July 2005 - Sales 1,389,000 - SPCS Index (7/05) 211.65
• October 1991 - Sales 524,300 - SPCS Index (10/91) 78.68
• January 1991 - Sales 401,500 - SPCS Index (1/91) 78.53

Sources: S&P, Bloomberg

Tradition Sees UK Housing Prices In 8 Year Slump

Today, Tradition Financial Services, Ltd. released their Tradition Future HPI, a leading UK housing price index.  Download press_release_v3.pdf .  The forward curve of the OTC derivatives market in UK house prices drives the Tradition Future HPI indices. The Tradition Future HPI shows one year through eight years forwards are priced below the current (spot) HPI benchmark.

Commenting, Peter Sceats, Director of the real estate division at Tradition, said:

"The Tradition Future HPI indices illustrate the pressure UK house prices are under. Those who trade UK house price derivatives fore-see the credit crunch having a longer impact on the housing market than previously predicted."