HOUSING DERIVATIVES

Housing Derivatives - OFHEO and Mortgage Resets

OFHEO's Q1 2007 numbers came out.  The Q1 2007 OFHEO's national housing price index was up 0.5% versus the 0.73% decline reported by S&P/Case-Shiller for national housing price.

The Big Picture has an excellent report on ARM resets and their scheduled timings.

All opinions expressed herein are those of the author, and no statement should be as an offer to buy or sell any futures contract, or security or option or other derivative instrument. Trading of all such futures, securities, options and other derivative instruments entails significant risk which can result in substantial financial loss. Such risks should be fully understood prior to trading.

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Housing Derivatives - May 2008 Housing Trades

The CME listed this week a suite of housing futures and options contracts for expiration in May 2008. Today, the first May 2008 housing options traded as part of a $3.6 million derivatives package. (Source: TFS Derivatives Corp.)

All opinions expressed herein are those of the author, and no statement should be as an offer to buy or sell any futures contract, or security or option or other derivative instrument. Trading of all such futures, securities, options and other derivative instruments entails significant risk which can result in substantial financial loss. Such risks should be fully understood prior to trading.

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Housing Derivatives - ABX BBB- Tranche Slipping

The ABX Index, credit-default swaps based on bonds consisting of sub-prime mortgages, for the BBB- 07-1 tranche is heading lower again to a May 2007 low of 67.21%.  This index bounced up to over 73.00% mid-May.

All opinions expressed herein are those of the author, and no statement should be as an offer to buy or sell any futures contract, or security or option or other derivative instrument. Trading of all such futures, securities, options and other derivative instruments entails significant risk which can result in substantial financial loss. Such risks should be fully understood prior to trading.

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Housing Derivatives - S&P/Case-Shiller March 07 Data

Today, S&P released the Case-Shiller indexes for March 2007:

	S&P/Case-Shiller Index - March 2007
	Mar 06	Feb 07	Feb 07R	Mar 07	Feb07 v Mar07	Feb07 v Mar07	Mar06 v Mar07
Bos	177.12	168.04	168.05	168.52	0.47	0.28%	-4.9%	Bos
Chi	164.89	167.50	167.49	167.04	(0.45)	-0.27%	1.3%	Chi
Den	136.93	134.86	134.86	134.20	(0.66)	-0.49%	-2.0%	Den
LV	232.38	229.64	229.64	228.55	(1.09)	-0.47%	-1.6%	LV
LA	268.23	266.63	266.63	264.58	(2.05)	-0.77%	-1.4%	LA
Mia	274.02	279.43	279.43	276.89	(2.54)	-0.91%	1.0%	Mia
NY	214.33	210.68	212.23	211.97	(0.26)	-0.12%	-1.1%	NY
SD	248.09	235.54	235.54	233.28	(2.26)	-0.96%	-6.0%	SD
SF	216.04	210.78	210.78	211.09	0.31	0.15%	-2.3%	SF
WDC	248.86	237.64	237.89	236.96	(0.93)	-0.39%	-4.8%	WDC
Comp	223.75	219.94	220.38	219.54	(0.84)	-0.38%	-1.9%	Comp

All opinions expressed herein are those of the author, and no statement should be as an offer to buy or sell any futures contract, or security or option or other derivative instrument. Trading of all such futures, securities, options and other derivative instruments entails significant risk which can result in substantial financial loss. Such risks should be fully understood prior to trading.

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Housing Derivatives - April 2007 Sales and Inventory Figures

The Interest Rate Roundup site has three posts that analyze last week's new and existing home sales and inventory levels for single family homes for April 2007. The numbers are many standard deviations away from norms, indicating market-uncleared supply for housing. Calculated Risk has a good post also.

On Tuesday May 29 the March 2007 S&P/Case-Shiller indexes are released.

All opinions expressed herein are those of the author, and no statement should be as an offer to buy or sell any futures contract, or security or option or other derivative instrument. Trading of all such futures, securities, options and other derivative instruments entails significant risk which can result in substantial financial loss. Such risks should be fully understood prior to trading.

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Housing Futures & Derivatives - TFS Housing Metrics Report and Housing Forwards

TFS Derivatives Corp., a subsidiary of Tradition Financial Services, Inc., produces a great deal of quantitative information for the housing derivatives trading markets. Information includes compilations of the CME housing futures market TFS_HOUSING_METRICS and market reports for the long-dated housing forwards. The latest TFS Housing Metrics reveals persistent lower housing index values into 2008 and the highest-yet open interest in CME-listed put options.

All opinions expressed herein are those of the author, and no statement should be as an offer to buy or sell any futures contract, or security or option or other derivative instrument. Trading of all such futures, securities, options and other derivative instruments entails significant risk which can result in substantial financial loss. Such risks should be fully understood prior to trading.

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Housing Derivatives - Using Housing Futures to Determine Buying vs Renting

Cristian Voicu of the Harvard Business School published a paper in May 2007 that looks at many of the uses of the CME housing futures to mitigate housing risk to households.  The paper goes further to analytically investigate the housing rent versus buy decision using housing futures values.

All opinions expressed herein are those of the author, and no statement should be as an offer to buy or sell any futures contract, or security or option or other derivative instrument. Trading of all such futures, securities, options and other derivative instruments entails significant risk which can result in substantial financial loss. Such risks should be fully understood prior to trading.

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Housing Derivatives - NAR Q1 2007 Median Home Figures

Today, the National Association of Realtors released its "Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes for Metropolitan Areas" report.

All opinions expressed herein are those of the author, and no statement should be as an offer to buy or sell any futures contract, or security or option or other derivative instrument. Trading of all such futures, securities, options and other derivative instruments entails significant risk which can result in substantial financial loss. Such risks should be fully understood prior to trading.

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Housing Futures & Derivatives - First-Ever Long-dated Case-Shiller Swap Trades

The Financial Times reported today that the first long-dated derivatives on US residential property traded this week.   

All opinions expressed herein are those of the author, and no statement should be as an offer to buy or sell any futures contract, or security or option or other derivative instrument. Trading of all such futures, securities, options and other derivative instruments entails significant risk which can result in substantial financial loss. Such risks should be fully understood prior to trading.

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Housing Derivatives - SW Connecticut - April 07

The data below is from WRG Homes, a Westport, CT, a Fairield county real estate brokerage.  The S&P/Case-Shiller Index for New York includes Fairfield county.

FAIRFIELD	# of Listings	# of Sales	Avg Price	Days on Mkt
January-06	277	13	$871,846	134
February-06	300	14	$716,286	104
March-06	335	22	$912,818	94
April-06	541	19	$662,947	128
May-06	524	18	$536,738	74
June-06	497	28	$885,518	70
July-06	479	16	$730,281	72
August-06	555	64	$1,054,089	76
September-06	532	36	$668,633	84
October-06	562	35	$732,469	76
November-06	487	45	$831,702	88
December-06	343	45	$765,496	100
January-07	465	48	$636,308	83
February-07	477	33	$1,031,348	104
March-07	512	59	$961,589	97
April-07	495	67	$769,991	100

WESTPORT	Listings	Sales	Avg Price	Days on Mkt
January-06	240	7	$1,435,857	87
February-06	252	8	$2,115,625	147
March-06	264	9	$2,850,867	113
April-06	356	28	$1,463,692	70
May-06	365	8	$1,731,000	130
June-06	358	6	$1,323,333	78
July-06	341	3	$738,333	89
August-06	349	40	$1,580,063	105
September-06	339	37	$1,395,066	89
October-06	341	20	$1,238,800	111
November-06	296	20	$1,497,650	121
December-06	215	24	$1,443,671	100
January-07	292	16	$1,657,531	114
February-07	314	11	$1,260,205	116
March-07	346	26	$1,517,019	125
April-07	313	33	$1,790,094	111

NORWALK	Listings	Sales	Avg Price	Days on Mkt
January-06	264	21	$600,236	87
February-06	278	18	$668,747	80
March-06	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
April-06	417	28	$636,284	98
May-06	443	30	$651,154	74
June-06	426	25	$655,076	97
July-06	387	21	$553,868	92
August-06	484	69	$646,897	90
September-06	410	60	$906,983	104
October-06	462	56	$640,730	71
November-06	405	54	$660,990	76
December-06	290	58	$591,809	82
January-07	370	39	$763,859	125
February-07	384	28	$628,564	106
March-07	427	55	$661,720	89
April-07	420	48	$754,308	81

All opinions expressed herein are those of the author, and no statement should be as an offer to buy or sell any futures contract, or security or option or other derivative instrument. Trading of all such futures, securities, options and other derivative instruments entails significant risk which can result in substantial financial loss. Such risks should be fully understood prior to trading.

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